Status of business organizations: 2025 review and outlook for 2026

Macroeconomic environment for businesses

Despite a lackluster economic environment, French growth proved to be resilient in 2025

At 0.9%, GDP growth in France in 2025 is close to last year’s figure and its long-term average. It is also similar to growth elsewhere in the eurozone (excluding Ireland, which is enjoying double-digit growth) and it remains higher than growth in Germany (0.4%) and Italy (0.7%).

The only downside is that growth in France is primarily driven by stock replenishment and, to a lesser extent, domestic demand while export-driven demand is faltering. At the beginning of 2026, the business climate is returning to a level very close to its long-term average after hitting a low point in the summer, which is also a sign that the situation of companies in France has improved since the autumn last year.

Non-financial companies (NFCs) could express financing requirements during the year

The economic ratios of NFCs are expected to deteriorate over the year, with margin rates declining despite remaining at high levels. The decline in the savings rate should be more pronounced owing to the increase in interest expenses. The investment rate, however, is expected to stabilize. Combined with the increase in storage costs, this should lead to a moderate funding gap in the first three quarters of the year.

NFCs investment and financing flows show a slight increase

Over the last four quarters, NFCs investment flows increased by €12 billion year-on-year to reach €44 billion. Although more moderate in size, financing flows also increased by €5 billion to €110 billion; within these latter flows, debt securities and bank loans recorded the strongest increases: €65 billion in 2025 after €27 billion in 2024.

Diagnosis of business demographics in 2025

Business demographics proved to be particularly dynamic and reached record levels in 2025 with nearly 1.2 million new businesses created in the course of the year. Micro-entrepreneurs represent nearly two-thirds of new business creation, while companies and self-employed entrepreneurs account for 26% and 9% respectively.

The 5% increase recorded over the year was driven by micro-entrepreneurs and companies (+6%), while traditional ventures launched by self-employed entrepreneurs declined (−3%). New business creation was very dynamic in commerce (+12%), the information and communication sector, real estate activities, and business support services (+9%), with the latter accounting for more than a quarter of new business ventures. On the other hand, new business creation declined in construction (−3%) and was virtually stagnant in manufacturing and household services.

1.2 m new businesses created in 2025, a record number

Over the past 10 years, the wave of new business creation has been massive, with a doubling in the number of new business ventures (×2.1), chiefly driven by micro-entrepreneurs (×2.8) and companies (×1.7), while the number of new self-employed entrepreneurs remained broadly stable, between 106,000 and 144,000 new business ventures launched per year over the period. In terms of business sector, transport and warehousing on the one hand, and information and communication on the other are the most dynamic areas of activity, with new business creation in these sectors increasing fivefold and threefold respectively.

68,650 business failures in 2025 (+2% year-on-year) but the number of jobs at risk declined (−9%)

The record level of business failures over the 12-month period was reached in September 2025, with nearly 68,800 bankruptcies, while the number of jobs threatened peaked a year earlier. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of bankruptcies was virtually stable year-on-year, at 18,400 (-1% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024).

68,800 business failures as of September 2025 (a 12-month record)

The number of jobs at risk fell by 9% year-on-year, particularly for micro-enterprises (−11%) and intermediate-sized and large companies (−19%).

The overall stability in the frequency of bankruptcies in 2025 masks contrasting dynamics

At 1.11% in 2025, the frequency of business failures is broadly stable compared with 2024, and has almost returned to its 2019 level. Here again, the overall average masks contrasting dynamics:

• First, by company size: while the failure rate is virtually stable for companies with no employees, it has fallen for companies employing between 1 and 9 people (−15bps) but is still rising for companies employing between 10 and 49 people (+8bps) and for those with 50 employees or more (+13bps).
• By sector of activity: among SMEs, intermediate-sized enterprises, and large companies, the frequency of bankruptcies increased by 10bps. The failure of companies providing services to businesses and households increased at a lower rate. In contrast, however, the rate of new business creation was on the rise. The situation is quite different for manufacturing industry (+29bp rise in the frequency of insolvencies, while the rate of new business creation declined slightly) and the trend is even more marked for businesses in the real-estate sector (+53bps).
• Finally, by geographical region: the frequency of insolvencies is higher in the Ile-de-France greater Paris region, Haute-Normandie, and French overseas departments. In the space of one year, they increased in Haute-Normandie (+0.74 percentage points), Nord-Pas-de-Calais (+0.55pp), Pays de la Loire (+0.48pp), Guadeloupe (+1.44pp) and French Guiana (+3.19pp). They declined, however, in Basse-Normandie (−0.27pp), Bourgogne (−0.30pp), Alsace (−0.48pp), Lorraine (−0.42pp), Martinique (−0.60pp) and Réunion Island (−1.05pp).

Analysis of the link between business demographics and economic activity

A significant correlation between business demographics and economic factors…

It seems quite natural to consider that interactions exist between business demographics and economic factors, primarily the state of the economy as illustrated, on the one hand, by changes in value added in non-agricultural market sectors and, on the other hand, by the business demographics of new business creation and business failures.

This is indeed the case, and the link is close: when economic activity grows, an increase in new business creation is observed along with a decline in business failures. This link appears to be stronger with business failures than with new business creation. It is synchronous, i.e. with very few effects occurring ahead or behind the wave; it is also constant over time, especially for business failures. A form of decoupling appears, however, with new business creation from 2016 onwards, a trend that can be explained by the Uberization of a fringe of the French economy, notably in the transport sector. Finally, the link between economic activity and business failures is more tangible for certain sectors, such as industry, trade, transport, and business services.

… which makes it possible to explain business failures over a long period

This correlation suggests a causality – that is, indeed, documented in the economic literature – between economic activity and new business creation and business failures^[1]. Estimated on the basis of annual data since the early 1990s, this relationship highlights the impact of business start-ups (excluding micro-entrepreneurs) on business failures: a 1% increase in new business creation leads to a 0.5% increase in failures after three years and to a 0.9% increase after ten years.

In the first half of the 2010s, new business creation had a very small impact on bankruptcies. In the second half of the 2010s, however, it is related to a 1.3pp increase in business failures each year. The impact has been even greater since 2021 (2pps on average each year) owing to the past momentum of new business creation. Over this later period, new business creation has consequently been responsible for a 10% increase in bankruptcies.

Bankruptcies should remain stable in 2026, at around 69,000

Based on this macro-econometric relationship, and in view of the economic outlook for 2026 with GDP growth expected to reach 1.0% in France, business failures should remain stable over the year, at around 69,000.

[1] See C. DOLIGNON: Facteurs explicatifs des évolutions récentes des défaillances d’entreprises : une analyse économétrique (Factors explaining recent trends in business failures: an econometric analysis), Lettre Trésor-Éco No. 84, February 2011.